1			A pattern of variation of a time series that repeats every year is called:
			A)	Cyclical
			B)	Seasonal
			C)	Trend
			D)	Secular
			E)	none of the above
2			Which of the following is not an example of seasonal variation?
			A)	sales of snow blowers
			B)	plant and flower sales
			C)	use of electricity
			D)	sales of suntan oil
			E)	annual earnings for a large corporation
3			Which one of the following is not a component of the multiplicative time series model?
			A)	trend
			B)	irregular variation
			C)	regression trend
			D)	seasonality
			E)	cyclicity
4			Given a multiplicative time series model, Z = (T)(S)(C)(I), calculating a moving average, and then dividing this multiplication model by the moving average, will isolate which components of the series?
			A)	T and C
			B)	T, C, and I
			C)	Sand I
			D)	T, C, and I
			E)	none of the above
5			The index number for the price of gasoline in 2002 was 142 and in 2003, it was 148.5, on a base year of 1994. What is the percent increase in price of gasoline from 2002 to 2003?
			A)	4.377%
			B)	4.577%
			C)	95.62%
			D)	6.5%
			E)	none of the above

Use the following to answer questions 6-7:

The following data are the wheat prices per bushel in the United States for the years 1965 to 1974.

<a onClick="window.open('/olcweb/cgi/pluginpop.cgi?it=jpg::::/sites/dl/free/0073373605/582619/Ch12_q6.JPG','popWin', 'width=NaN,height=NaN,resizable,scrollbars');" href="#"><img valign="absmiddle" height="16" width="16" border="0" src="/olcweb/styles/shared/linkicons/image.gif"> (8.0K)</a>

6			Construct a simple index of the wheat prices using 1968 as the base year. What is the index number for 1973?
			A)	106.28
			B)	119.25
			C)	94.09
			D)	9.56
			E)	23
7			The percentage change in wheat price from 1965 to 1970 has:
			A)	stayed the same
			B)	increased
			C)	decreased
			D)	cannot be determined from information given
			E)	none of the above
8			Calculate a three-day moving average for the price of stock for Thursday. <a onClick="window.open('/olcweb/cgi/pluginpop.cgi?it=jpg::::/sites/dl/free/0073373605/582619/Ch12_q8.JPG','popWin', 'width=NaN,height=NaN,resizable,scrollbars');" href="#"><img valign="absmiddle" height="16" width="16" border="0" src="/olcweb/styles/shared/linkicons/image.gif"> (6.0K)</a>
			A)	53.50
			B)	54.10
			C)	90.17
			D)	54.00
			E)	none of the above
9			A deseasonalized series contains only which components?
			A)	all four components
			B)	T and C
			C)	T and I
			D)	T, C and I
			E)	none of the above
10			Which method of trend analysis is useful for data not having a pronounced trend or seasonality?
			A)	multiplicative model
			B)	decomposition model
			C)	ratio-to-moving average method
			D)	exponential smoothing method
			E)	trend analysis
11			In an exponential smoothing model, the weighting factor w is a number that falls between ____________ and ____________.
			A)	0; 1
			B)	-1; 1
			C)	-1; 0
			D)	4; 4
			E)	-2; 2
12			An exponential smoothing model has been developed with weighting factor w set at 0.3. If the forecast in period t was for 210 and the actual value in period t was 230, the forecast for period t+1 will be for _____________.
			A)	216
			B)	217
			C)	233
			D)	231
			E)	228