A key premise in the discussion is that managers are sufficiently sophisticated
so as to use real-option techniques. However, in practice, the application of
real-option techniques is spotty. Many managers find real-option techniques to
be framed opaquely, and their resulting discomfort leads them to rely on simpler
heuristics. Mild excessive optimism and overconfidence can be desirable traits
for managers to possess when there are conflicts of interest between bondholders
and equity holders. Ultimately, equity holders bear the cost of conflicts
that lead managers to favor the interests of equity holders over debt holders.
However, excessive optimism and overconfidence tend to introduce countervailing
forces that mitigate the behavior that concerns bondholders. |