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| 1 | |
Decision theory always guarantees optimal solution. |
| | A) | True |
| | B) | False |
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| 2 | |
Decision theory provides a rational and logical way of making decisions. |
| | A) | True |
| | B) | False |
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| 3 | |
In pruning (evaluating) a decision tree, you write the expected payoff at a random outcome node inside the circle or square representing that node. |
| | A) | True |
| | B) | False |
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| 4 | |
Which of the following is not a part of decision tree problem specification. |
| | A) | A list of alternatives. |
| | B) | A list of possible states of nature. |
| | C) | Expected value of perfect information. |
| | D) | Payoffs associated with alternative/state of nature combination. |
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| 5 | |
If a decision theory problem has 3 decision alternatives and 4 states of nature, the number of payoffs in that problem will be |
| | A) | 3 |
| | B) | 4 |
| | C) | 12 |
| | D) | 64 |
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| 6 | |
In a decision theory problem under complete uncertainty, which one of the following approaches will not be possible? |
| | A) | Expected monetary value. |
| | B) | Maximin. |
| | C) | Minimax. |
| | D) | Hurwicz. |
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| 7 | |
Projected payoff corresponding to various levels of business expansion and economic conditions faced by Ramcast Cable Inc. is given in the table below. Using Hurwicz criterion with α=0.7, identify the correct decision for Ramcast Cable Inc.
 <![CDATA[<a onClick="window.open('/olcweb/cgi/pluginpop.cgi?it=jpg::::/sites/dl/free/007299066x/335683/011_07.jpg','popWin', 'width=529,height=236,resizable,scrollbars');" href="#"><img valign="absmiddle" height="16" width="16" border="0" src="/olcweb/styles/shared/linkicons/image.gif"> (18.0K)</a>]]> |
| | A) | d1 |
| | B) | d2 |
| | C) | d3 |
| | D) | d4 |
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| 8 | |
Expected payoff corresponding to various levels of business expansion and economic conditions faced by Ramcast Cable Inc. is given in the table below. The probabilities of the events are also given. Using expected monetary value criterion, identify the correct decision for Ramcast Cable Inc.
 <![CDATA[<a onClick="window.open('/olcweb/cgi/pluginpop.cgi?it=jpg::::/sites/dl/free/007299066x/335683/011_08.jpg','popWin', 'width=526,height=259,resizable,scrollbars');" href="#"><img valign="absmiddle" height="16" width="16" border="0" src="/olcweb/styles/shared/linkicons/image.gif"> (21.0K)</a>]]> |
| | A) | d1 |
| | B) | d2 |
| | C) | d3 |
| | D) | d4 |
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| 9 | |
Projected payoff corresponding to various levels of business expansion and economic conditions faced by Ramcast Cable Inc. is given in the table below. Using minimizing opportunity loss criterion, identify the correct decision for Ramcast Cable Inc.
 <![CDATA[<a onClick="window.open('/olcweb/cgi/pluginpop.cgi?it=jpg::::/sites/dl/free/007299066x/335683/011_09_10.jpg','popWin', 'width=526,height=261,resizable,scrollbars');" href="#"><img valign="absmiddle" height="16" width="16" border="0" src="/olcweb/styles/shared/linkicons/image.gif"> (22.0K)</a>]]> |
| | A) | d1 |
| | B) | d2 |
| | C) | d3 |
| | D) | d4 |
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| 10 | |
Expected payoff corresponding to various levels of business expansion and economic conditions faced by Ramcast Cable Inc. is given in the table below. The probabilities of the events are also given. What is the minimum expected opportunity loss in the payoff matrix given below.
<![CDATA[<a onClick="window.open('/olcweb/cgi/pluginpop.cgi?it=jpg::::/sites/dl/free/007299066x/335683/011_09_10.jpg','popWin', 'width=526,height=261,resizable,scrollbars');" href="#"><img valign="absmiddle" height="16" width="16" border="0" src="/olcweb/styles/shared/linkicons/image.gif"> (22.0K)</a>]]> |
| | A) | 180000 |
| | B) | 435000 |
| | C) | 390000 |
| | D) | 149000 |
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| 11 | |
Prior probabilities for economic boom, moderate growth and recession in the Land_of_the_bipeds is given below. There is a Land_of_Mortals where there are only two states Boost or Roast. Conditional probability of Boost or Roast given various states of economic conditions in the Land_of_the_bipeds is also known and presented below.
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The P(Boost) is |
| | A) | 0.16 |
| | B) | 0.15 |
| | C) | 0.46 |
| | D) | 0.54 |
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| 12 | |
Prior probabilities for economic boom, moderate growth and recession in the Land_of_the_bipeds is given below. There is a Land_of_Mortals where there are only two states Boost or Roast. Conditional probability of Boost or Roast given various states of economic conditions in the Land_of_the_bipeds is also known and presented below.
<![CDATA[<a onClick="window.open('/olcweb/cgi/pluginpop.cgi?it=jpg::::/sites/dl/free/007299066x/335683/011_11_12.jpg','popWin', 'width=575,height=169,resizable,scrollbars');" href="#"><img valign="absmiddle" height="16" width="16" border="0" src="/olcweb/styles/shared/linkicons/image.gif"> (16.0K)</a>]]>
The P(Roast) is |
| | A) | 0.16 |
| | B) | 0.54 |
| | C) | 0.46 |
| | D) | 0.04 |
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