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Multiple Choice Quiz
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1
Markov Analysis has many business applications such as accounts receivables analysis and machine maintenance.
A)True
B)False
2
In Markov systems, the probability of going from one state in period n to another state in period (n+1) depends on what states the system traveled in periods 1,2,...,n.
A)True
B)False
3
The states in a Markov system are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
A)True
B)False
4
If matrix A is multiplied by matrix B, (A.B), then the number of rows in A should equal the number of columns in B.
A)True
B)False
5
Judy Jones purchases groceries and pop exactly once each week on Sunday evenings. She buys either Coke or Pepsi only and switches from Coke to Pepsi and vice-versa sort of regularly. Her purchasing behavior of these two drinks is modeled as a Markov system. Querying Judy, a novice student came up with the following transition matrix be. Does this matrix satisfy all the conditions for being a transition matrix?

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A)True
B)False
6
Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) will be greater than expected opportunity loss associated with the EMV maximizing decision.
A)True
B)False
7
Which of the following is not a part of the characteristics of a Markov system?
A)In each period the system can assume one of a number of states.
B)Transition probabilities describing the system changes from period to period remain constant.
C)The states of the system overlap.
D)The probability of going from a state in period n to another state in period (n+1) depends only on the current state of the system.
8
Judy Jones purchases groceries and pop exactly once each week on Sunday evenings. She buys either Coke or Pepsi only and switches from Coke to Pepsi and vice-versa sort of regularly. Her purchasing behavior of these two drinks is modeled as a Markov system. Let the transition matrix be:

<a onClick="window.open('/olcweb/cgi/pluginpop.cgi?it=jpg::::/sites/dl/free/007299066x/335683/012_08_12.jpg','popWin', 'width=504,height=119,resizable,scrollbars');" href="#"><img valign="absmiddle" height="16" width="16" border="0" src="/olcweb/styles/shared/linkicons/image.gif"> (4.0K)</a>

If in Week #7, Judy has purchased Coke, what is the probability that she would purchase Pepsi in Week #8?
A)0.7
B)0.6
C)0.3
D)cannot tell without her purchase behavior in Weeks 1-6.
9
Judy Jones purchases groceries and pop exactly once each week on Sunday evenings. She buys either Coke or Pepsi only and switches from Coke to Pepsi and vice-versa sort of regularly. Her purchasing behavior of these two drinks is modeled as a Markov system. Let the transition matrix be:

<a onClick="window.open('/olcweb/cgi/pluginpop.cgi?it=jpg::::/sites/dl/free/007299066x/335683/012_08_12.jpg','popWin', 'width=504,height=119,resizable,scrollbars');" href="#"><img valign="absmiddle" height="16" width="16" border="0" src="/olcweb/styles/shared/linkicons/image.gif"> (4.0K)</a>

If in Week #7, Judy has purchased Coke, what is the probability that she would purchase Pepsi in Week #9?
A)0.21
B)0.39
C)0.18
D)cannot tell without her purchase behavior in Weeks 1-6.
10
Judy Jones purchases groceries and pop exactly once each week on Sunday evenings. She buys either Coke or Pepsi only and switches from Coke to Pepsi and vice-versa sort of regularly. Her purchasing behavior of these two drinks is modeled as a Markov system. Let the transition matrix be:

<a onClick="window.open('/olcweb/cgi/pluginpop.cgi?it=jpg::::/sites/dl/free/007299066x/335683/012_08_12.jpg','popWin', 'width=504,height=119,resizable,scrollbars');" href="#"><img valign="absmiddle" height="16" width="16" border="0" src="/olcweb/styles/shared/linkicons/image.gif"> (4.0K)</a>

Let P(Coke) and P(Pepsi) respectively denote the steady state probability that Judy will buy Coke or Pepsi in the very long run on any week. Which of the following is the correct system of equations to find these steady state probabilities?
A)P(Coke)*0.7+P(Pepsi)*0.4 = P(Coke) and P(Coke)*0.3+P(Pepsi)*0.6 = P(Pepsi)
B)P(Coke)*0.7+P(Pepsi)*0.3 = P(Coke) and P(Coke)*0.4+P(Pepsi)*0.6 = P(Pepsi)
C)P(Coke)*0.7+P(Pepsi)*0.4 = P(Pepsi) and P(Coke)*0.3+P(Pepsi)*0.6 = P(Coke)
D)P(Coke)*0.7+P(Pepsi)*0.4 = P(Coke) and P(Coke)+P(Pepsi) = 1.0
11
Judy Jones purchases groceries and pop exactly once each week on Sunday evenings. She buys either Coke or Pepsi only and switches from Coke to Pepsi and vice-versa sort of regularly. Her purchasing behavior of these two drinks is modeled as a Markov system. Let the transition matrix be:

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If in Week #7, Judy is equally likely to be purchasing Coke or Pepsi (0.5 each), what is the probability that she would purchase Pepsi in Week #8?
A)0.45
B)0.55
C)0.5
D)0.3
12
Judy Jones purchases groceries and pop exactly once each week on Sunday evenings. She buys either Coke or Pepsi only and switches from Coke to Pepsi and vice-versa sort of regularly. Her purchasing behavior of these two drinks is modeled as a Markov system. Let the transition matrix be:

<a onClick="window.open('/olcweb/cgi/pluginpop.cgi?it=jpg::::/sites/dl/free/007299066x/335683/012_08_12.jpg','popWin', 'width=504,height=119,resizable,scrollbars');" href="#"><img valign="absmiddle" height="16" width="16" border="0" src="/olcweb/styles/shared/linkicons/image.gif"> (4.0K)</a>

Let P(Coke) and P(Pepsi) respectively denote the steady state probability that Judy will buy Coke or Pepsi in the very long run on any week. P(Coke) for this data will be:
A)0.7
B)0.6
C)3/7
D)4/7





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