Introduction

Features Common to All Forecasts

Elements of a Good Forecast

Steps in the Forecasting Process

Approaches to Forecasting

Forecasts Based on Judgment and Opinion

Executive Opinions

Salesforce Opinions

Consumer Surveys

Other Approaches

Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

Naive Methods

Techniques for Averaging

Techniques for Trend

Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing

Techniques for Seasonality

Techniques for Cycles

Associative Forecasting Techniques

Simple Linear Regression

Comments on the Use of Linear Regression Analysis

Curvilinear and Multiple Regression Analysis

Accuracy and Control of Forecasts

Newsclip: High Forecasts Can Be Bad News

Summarizing Forecast Accuracy

Controlling the Forecast

Choosing a Forecasting Technique

Using Forecast Information

Computers in Forecasting

Operations Strategy

Reading: Hitting the Mark: Accuracy in Beer Sales Forecasting

Summary

Key Terms

Solved Problems

Discussion and Review Questions

Taking Stock

Critical Thinking Exercises

Group/Experiential Learning Exercises

Problems

Cases: M&L Manufacturing

   Highline Financial Services, Ltd.

Selected Bibliography and Further Reading