| absolute error | The absolute value of the forecast error.
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| causal forecast | A forecast that uses extrinsic data as a predictor of demand.
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| contingency plans | Alternative or back-up plans to be used if an unexpected event makes the normal plans infeasible.
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| cycle | A component of a time series that is a pattern that repeats over a long period of time.
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| decline stage | The final stage of a product or service life cycle as demand disappears.
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| forecast bias | The tendency of a forecast to be too high or too low.
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| forecast including trend (FIT) | Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing.
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| growth stage | The second stage of a product or service life cycle, where demand begins to increase.
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| introduction stage | The first stage of a product or service life cycle.
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| life cycle | A pattern of demand growth and decline that occurs from the introduction of a product to its obsolescence.
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| maturation stage | The third stage of a product or service life cycle, when demand begins to level off.
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| mean absolute deviation (MAD) | A measure of the absolute forecast error that is the mean of the absolute values of the forecast errors.
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| mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) | The mean of the absolute errors stated as a percentage of demand.
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| mean forecast error (MFE) | A measure of forecast bias that is the mean of the forecast errors.
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| planning horizon | The distance into the future one plans.
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| qualitative forecast | A forecast based on qualitative information.
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| quantitative forecast | A forecast based on quantitative data.
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| random fluctuation | Unpredictable variation in demand that is not due to trend, seasonality, or cycle.
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| running sum of forecast error (RSFE) | A measure of forecast bias that is the sum of forecast error and is updated as each new error is calculated.
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| saturation stage | The fourth stage of a product or service life cycle, when demand shifts to the beginning of its decline.
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| seasonality | A pattern in a times series that repeats itself at least once a year.
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| simple exponential smoothing | A sophisticated type of moving average that uses a smoothing constant to weight the previous demand and establish the responsiveness of the forecast.
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| times series forecasting | Using past demand to forecast the future.
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| tracking signal | The size of the cumulative forecast error expressed as MADs.
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| trend | A component of a time series that causes demand to increase or decrease.
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| trend adjusted exponential smoothing | An exponential smoothing technique that includes a smoothing constant for trend.
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