Additional Case Studies

Popdata
Easter Island: a history of overpopulation
Thailand's success in family planning
India's population passes 1 billion
Tanzania reverses child malnutrition trends

popdata (112.0K)

The Saga of Easter Island

One of the most remote habitable places on the earth, Easter Island, lies about 3200 km west of South America, the nearest continent, and more than 2000 km from the closest occupied island (Pitcairn). With a mild climate and fertile volcanic soils, Easter Island should have been a tropical paradise, but when it was "discovered" by Dutch explorer Jacob Roggeveen in 1722, it resembled a barren wasteland more than a paradise. Covered by a dry grassland, the island had no trees and few bushes more than a meter tall. No animals inhabited the island except humans, chickens, rats, and a few insects.

The 2000 people living on the island at the time eked out a pitiful existence. Having no seaworthy canoes, they couldn't venture out on the ocean to fish. With no trees to provide building materials or firewood, the island's cool, wet, windy winters were miserable; meager gardens hardly produced enough food for subsistence.

And yet, scattered along the coastline were thousands of immense stone heads, some as large as 30 meters tall, weighing more than 200 metric tons (previous page). How could such a small population have carved, moved, and erected these enormous effigies? Was there once a larger and more advanced civilization on the island? If so, where did they go?

Historical studies have shown that conditions on the island were once very different than they are now. Until about 1500 years ago, the island was covered with a lush subtropical forest and the soil was deep and fertile. Polynesian people apparently reached Easter Island about A.D. 400. Anthropological and linguistic evidence suggests they sailed from the Marquesas Islands 3500 kilometers to the northwest. Excavations of archeological sites show that the early settlers' diet consisted mainly of porpoises, land-nesting seabirds, and garden vegetables. Populations soared, reaching as much as 20,000 on an island only about 15 km across.

By A.D. 1400 the forest appears to have disappeared completely-cut down for firewood and to make houses, canoes, and rollers for transporting the enormous statues. Without a protective forest cover, soil washed off steep hillsides. Springs and streams dried up, while summer droughts made gardens less productive. All wild land birds became extinct and seabirds no longer nested on the island. Lacking wood to build new canoes, the people could no longer go offshore to fish. Statues carved at this time show sunken cheeks and visible ribs suggesting starvation.

At this point, chaos and warfare seem to have racked the land. The main bones found in fireplaces were those of rats and humans. Cannibalism apparently was rampant as the population decreased by 90 percent. The few remaining people cowered in caves, a pitiful remnant of a once impressive civilization. When we try to imagine how people reached this condition, we wonder why they didn't control their population and conserve their resources. What were their thoughts as they cut down the last trees, stranding themselves on this island of diminishing possibilities?

Does this story have lessons for us? Is Easter Island an example of what could happen to the rest of us if our population grows and we use up our store of resources? The debate over the carrying capacity of the earth for humans remains one of the most contentious and important issues in environmental science. Some demographers warn that we are headed for a disaster similar to that of Easter Island. Others hope that we will be more clever and perceptive than the unhappy people who destroyed the resource base on which they depended. What do you think? How will we recognize and respond to excess population and consumption levels?

Family Planning In Thailand

One of the most successful birth control programs in the world is in Thailand, where the annual population growth rate fell from 3.3 to 1.2 percent between 1972 and 1995. The number of children an average woman would have in a lifetime dropped during this period from 5.8 to 2.2. Much of this progress was due to the leadership of Mechai Viravaidya, the founder and director of the Community-Based Family Planning Service (CBFPS) of Thailand.

Concerned about the environmental and economic effects of rapid population growth in his country, Viravaidya could see that the top-down approach to family planning used in Thailand was ineffective. A different approach-one focused on the wants and needs of poor people, especially in rural areas-was needed. Having been chosen to escort the Thai Miss Universe on a publicity tour in the early 1970s, Viravaidya was well-known in his country and had developed an expertise in using the media to influence public opinion. He decided to use his new-found fame and skills to do something positive for his country.

When Viravaidya started his campaign, birth control was a foreign concept to most Thai people. The whole subject was embarrassing and not something discussed in polite company. Few people knew anything about modern methods of contraception. The first thing CBFPS decided to do was to try to overcome the taboo of discussing sexual issues in public. Humorous billboards and signs on buses, public contests to build stacks of birth control pills and blow up condoms like balloons, songs and jingles on the radio, and free condom giveaways made the subject of family planning a familiar and even popular topic. Children learned about family planning in school and took material home to educate their parents.

Viravaidya became one of the most well-known figures in Thailand. His good-natured but indefatigable promotion of birth control earned him the nickname of Mr. Condom. Financial incentives were offered to community members willing to distribute contraceptives as well as to villagers who practice family planning. Having a poster in the front window proclaiming a household as one enrolled in the CBFPS program became a source of pride.

CBFPS worked on more than birth control, however. Viravaidya recognized a need to change the socioeconomic reasons that cause people to want large families. Rural development projects designed to increase family income and to provide educational opportunities were undertaken as an important part of family planning. In 1977, the program changed its name to Population and Community Development Association (PCDA) to reflect a belief that the solution to the population growth problem is located at the village level. People will tend to have fewer children if they are confident that the ones they have will survive. Among the greatest threats to children's health are malnutrition and lack of clean drinking water.

In 1970 when Viravaidya started his work, about 25 percent of all Thai children died before age five, mainly from infectious diseases. The PCDA now helps finance and build rainwater catchment systems in villages to ensure a year-round clean water supply. Ways to improve agricultural and livestock output are taught to ensure greater financial security and a better food supply. Today, infant mortality has been cut by 75 percent and parents have lowered their desired number of children from 7 or 8 to 2 or 3. This means both less pain over lost children and real progress toward a stable population.

Individual participation is a key factor in the success of PCDA programs. No handouts are given; each person is responsible for paying back loans. The PCDA approach has helped villages become self-sufficient. It encourages villagers to find a path to a better life and lets their own efforts and desires determine how far and how fast they will go. Ethical Considerations

Trying to change people's beliefs about something as basic as sex and family planning can easily infringe on religious beliefs and social traditions. Does a society's goal of stabilizing population justify interfering with people's right to privacy and individual freedom?

Minority groups in Thailand and elsewhere believe their populations are already so low that they are in danger of disappearing in the larger majority culture. They claim a special right to have as many children as they like. Altogether these minority people make up a large population. If you could make world population policy, would you grant their request? Where would you draw the line?

August, 1999

In October 1999, the world's population reached 6 billion. The largest single contributor to population growth is India, which is on track to become the world's most populous country.

During the month of August 1999, India's 1 billionth resident was born, one of 2 milion babies born in India that month. Although China, with 1.27 billion people, has long been recognized as the world's most populous country, India is gaining on China. Within 45 years, at current growth rates, India will surpass China as the world's largest population.

<a onClick="window.open('/olcweb/cgi/pluginpop.cgi?it=gif::kids::/sites/dl/free/0072452706/22963/kids.gif','popWin', 'width=NaN,height=NaN,resizable,scrollbars');" href="#"><img valign="absmiddle" height="16" width="16" border="0" src="/olcweb/styles/shared/linkicons/image.gif">kids (42.0K)</a>kids Large families are still important in many poor countries, contributing to rapid population growth.

India's growth has been rapid, resulting from longer life expectancy and lower infant mortality in recent decades. In the half century since India gained independence from Great Britain in 1947, the average life expectancy has risen from just 39 years to 63 years, as high as that in Russia today. Family sizes have also fallen sharply: in 1947 the average couple had six children, while today the average couple has only three. The large population has substantial momentum despite falling birth rates, though. In the same half century the country's population has nearly tripled, from 345 million to 1 billion. In 15 years India's population will exceed those of all developed countries combined, according to the United Nations Population Division. Currently India contributes 21% of the world's annual population increase, while China contributes 16%.

Part of the reason India is gaining on China is that China has had very severe family planning laws, enforcing a one-child-per-family policy on most of the population. This policy was adopted because Chinese leaders anticipated that traditional large families would quickly overtax the country's resources. While India has tried many approaches to limiting family sizes, this democratically governed country has not enforced strict limits as China has. Family planning has proceeded chiefly through education and health programs, which are effective but which break down traditions slowly. Also obstructing efforts to reduce family sizes are real economic needs of peasant families that lack education but can can put young children to work, thus raising meagre family incomes.

Notably family size reduction has been most effective in the southern states of India, especially Kerala, where female literacy is almost as high as male literacy, where women have relatively high social status, and where large numbers of women are able to find employment outside the home. Presumably women who are educated and employable are more able and willing to postpone childbirth or to choose a smaller family. Birth rates remain highest in the northern states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where poverty remains extreme and education for girls is relatively limited.

To read more, see

Environmental Science, A Global Concern, Cunningham and Saigo, 5th ed.
Human populations: p. 133-55
Populations in developed versus developing countries: p. 12-14
Family planning: 150-54

Environmental Science, a Study of Interrelationships, Enger and Smith, 7th ed.
Government policy and population control: p. 112
Human population issues: p. 105
Causes of population growth: p. 107

For further information, see these related web sites:

International Planned Parenthood update on India
Overpopulation alert: Ecofuture.org
Worldwatch organization reports on populations
World PopClock, World Census Bureau

A Community-based Nutrition Program

In the developing world, about 12.9 million children under age five die each year from common diseases such as pneumonia and diarrhea. Because underweight children are much more susceptible to these diseases, proper nutrition is central in combating child mortality. Although attempts have been made to improve children's health in poorer countries, childhood malnutrition, disease, and mortality have remained high. A new strategy is needed to better address the underlying causes of these problems. Improving food security and educating communities about proper nutrition should be high priorities of this strategy. In 1983, Tanzania launched a project to focus on the capacity of small communities to deal with their own nutritional concerns that might serve as a world model for combating malnutrition and child mortality.

The initial project took place in the Iringa region in the southwestern part of Tanzania. Despite having a food surplus, Iringa had higher levels of malnutrition than other parts of the country. To promote the Iringa Nutrition Project (INP), informational meetings were held in each village. A central part of these meetings was the showing of the film "Hidden Hunger," which explains the prevalence of malnutrition and its causes and potential solutions. A framework was developed to help communities assess and analyze their health and nutrition problems by identifying underlying causes. The project coordinators trained villagers to be health workers and to look for solutions within the community. The process of community assessment, analysis and action became know as the Triple-A cycle.

The focal point of the INP is village health days, held at least once every three months. These health days are community festivals with health and nutrition lectures and growth monitoring for all children under the age of five. Villages with the best weight-for-age results for their children are awarded prizes as an incentive for the entire community to be involved. Weight-for-age information is then used to determine the need for individual follow-up visits to families. Each household with an underweight child receives personal attention from the trained village health workers. They are advised about their child's nutritional needs and how to meet them. Poor households that cannot afford proper nutrition receive financial assistance or food from community plots.

Initially the INP project required a large government staff, but over time the communities have taken on greater responsibilities. The need for external subsidies also has diminished; the cost of the program has been reduced from US$12-17 to US$3-5 per child. The original INP project served 46,000 children in 168 villages. Three years later, the program was expanded to include 450 more villages with an additional 150,000 children. Subsequently, the project was extended to all of Tanzania and by 1991 nearly 2 million children were being aided. This self-assisted, community-based format has proven to be very successful. Many regions have experienced a dramatic drop in malnutrition rates - falling from as high as 8 percent down to less than 2 percent.

The INP model has been adopted recently as a framework for a new nutrition strategy adopted by the United Nation Children's Fund (UNICEF), which estimates that if all developing countries were as successful as Tanzania in reducing child deaths, at least 8 million unnecessary deaths would be avoided and there would be nearly 22 million fewer births each year. When parents are confident that their children will survive, many will have only the number of children they want, rather than "compensating" for likely deaths by extra births. Successful nutrition programs, such as the one initiated in Iringa, may be key factors in stabilizing populations around the world.